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What if the MCU had started a few years earlier?
Marvel, having sold film rights to many of their characters in the early 90s, were frustrated that no films had yet arrived. Most of these deals were 7 years old, and were going to expire soon.
FOX was approaching them for renewal of the deal. Meanwhile, SONY was about to sue, claiming that they still had rights to Spider-Man - despite the rights having expired already. Not seeing any other way to bring their characters to screen...Marvel renewed these deals.
Marvel didn't know it at the time, but it would be over 20 years until they had the rights to all of their characters again.
The point of divergence is 1998 or 1999. In our timeline, this is when Marvel delayed greatness - renewing their contracts with FOX, and settling their lawsuit with SONY. I will be trying to keep things as realistic as possible. I will be considering the history of CGI/special effects, so no, there won't magically be a convincing Thanos in 2002. I will be considering the budgets of studios and their release schedules - every single release on this timeline will replace a different one. The money to make the film won't magically appear, and the studio won't suddenly have new releases on the schedule. I will be considering the histories of key actors - Tom Holland won't be Spider-Man in 2005, when Holland was 9 years old.
All of this will propagate from a single, seemingly simple change: Marvel has more confidence at the negotiation table. Starting in 1998, when Marvel renewed deals, they reduced the expiration date to 4 years (down from 7 years.)
Having been frustrated by studios for decades, their hope was that the reduced time limit would help a studio to finally get a film out there, rather than letting it languish in development for years on end. As we will see, this tactic paid off.
Let's get started.
But the success of Spider-Man triggers another success.
Since 1998, Avi Arad and Kevin Feige had been attempting to secure funding to produce their own films under a new entity named Marvel Studios. But it wasn't until Spider-Man broke box office records that the banks caught on. So it was in the summer of 2002 that Marvel Studios is granted a loan of about $525 million to produce 10 films, about four years earlier than they were able to do so in reality.
This is a more assertive Marvel.
Noticing that Universal's deal had expired, Marvel demands production cease on the wayward Hulk film, bringing the character home. Ang Lee's Hulk (2003) is never released. Daredevil, however, hits its deadline and sees release. But Marvel, having already secured independent funding, is not as helpful during it's difficult reception and therefore Elektra (2005) is never filmed. The same happens to other smaller budget films like The Punisher (2004) and Ghost Rider (2007) - with Marvel busy working on their own films, and without Avi Arad executive producing - they simply don't happen.
Hulk is now the most popular character in Marvel's roster.
Due to the timing of their latest round of renewals, Marvel still does not have access to Spider-Man, Fantastic Four, or X-Men. So their strategy is exactly the same as in real life - to build a series of solo films before a massive crossover with The Avengers. Here is the rough outline for their release schedule:
- May 2004 - Hulk
- July 2004 - Captain America
- Nov 2005 - Thor
- May 2006 - Iron Man
- May 2007 - Hulk 2
- July 2007 - Ant-Man
- May 2008 - The Avengers
- Nov 2008 - Thor 2
Unfortunately, despite this film being a great success, Marvel is unable to work through their distribution problems with Universal (just like real life.) They make the controversial decision to cancel Hulk 2, tentatively moving Thor 2 up a year earlier instead.
For Captain America, Marvel approaches Paul Greengrass. Known mostly for his period pieces and war films, Greengrass sees potential for the series and accepts Marvel's offer.
These two films (Hulk and Captain America) are able to start the MCU off with a much tighter one-two punch than Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk were able to in reality (2008.)
For the first Thor, Marvel hire director Andrew Adamson, who takes on the project instead of The Chronicles of Narnia films. As with the Narnia films, these are co-produced with Disney. Unlike Prince Caspian however, there is no release schedule conflict with Walden Media, and Thor 2 is therefore able to release on time for Christmas 2007.
Meanwhile, despite Hulk 2 being cancelled, del Toro is not left on the bench. With the mediocre profits from Peter Jackson's King Kong (2005), the producers and distributors are looking at possible sequel options, with Jackson suggesting del Toro may be able to help. Rather than attempting a direct sequel, however, the studio decides that art and set assets can be re-purposed for a project with Marvel. Mid budget ($60 to 90 million) with eyes on one of the less competitive release windows like October or January.
After reading an early script for Captain America 2, del Toro concepts an expedition to Wakanda by Peggy Carter and Howard Stark at the start of WW2, prior to recruiting Steve Rogers and creating the super-soldier serum. In this concept, Wakanda has dinosaurs and Welsey Snipes stars as a WW2-era Black Panther. The release ends up roughly replacing the budget and release date of Ghost Rider (2007.)
Due to issues with Edgar Wright, Ant-Man is delayed until Phase 2. Captain America 2 takes its release date, with Paul Greengrass returning to direct. His Captain America duology ends up taking the place of his award-winning work on Bourne Supremacy (2004) and The Bourne Ultimatum (2007) - the first film set in The Pacific Theatre of WW2, and the second split between The European Theatre and modern times.
So, with all the changes to the schedule, here is what Phase 1 actually ends up looking like:
- May 2004 - Hulk
- July 2004 - Captain America
- Nov 2005 - Thor
- May 2006 - Iron Man
- Jan 2007 - Agent Carter
- July 2007 - Captain America 2
- Nov 2007 - Thor 2
- May 2008 - The Avengers
As for The Avengers, Joss Whedon is hired to direct, alongside his common collaborator Drew Goddard. Both are hired partly because Marvel is also interested in developing property for television.
But unlike in our timeline, Whedon's being hired to direct The Avengers does not cause very much controversy within Marvel. This is because Favreau was not the one who debuted the MCU this time around, and he wasn't rushed to pump out Iron Man 2 in just two years...so when Phase 2 comes around, Favreau is still happy to direct for Marvel. Iron Man 2 is scheduled for May 2009.
First, the Thor series has been a surprise hit with teen girls. In this timeline, Hemsworth and Hiddleston were both in their early 20s when they debuted their roles and, working on a budget, the relatively unknown (but much younger) Kristen Stewart was cast instead of Natalie Portman. So unexpectedly the god/teen girl relationship has triggered the otherwise Twilight fans, and the sequel had used this to their advantage - hinting at a love triangle possibility between Thor, Jane and Loki in the future.
Deciding to maximize on this idea, the Thor films get put on an annual release schedule. For distribution, Marvel partners with Summit Entertainment, targeting November and February (Valentine's Day) release dates. This has the butterfly effect of delaying the Twilight films by just long enough that they miss their window...Thor mostly takes their billion-dollar box office earnings instead.
The second major change is that the rights to Daredevil have reverted to Marvel much earlier. With four years passing since the 2003 film, no sequel was made.
Drew Goddard is now at Marvel pitching a Daredevil film in 2007, at least five years earlier than he did in our timeline. Back then, Netflix was still in your mailbox, and there's not really anything at all like a streaming studio. But Marvel doesn't want to just sit on the property when Goddard has such a good pitch. So Marvel makes a call...to HBO.
Daredevil premieres on HBO in September 2008, replacing True Blood on their release schedule.
But, here's my best guess:
- Feb 2009 - Thor 3
- May 2009 - Iron Man 2
- Aug 2009 - Ant-Man
- May 2010 - Avengers 2
- Jul 2010 - Captain America 3
- Nov 2010 - Thor 4
- May 2011 - Iron Man 3
- Aug 2011 - Guardians of the Galaxy
- Nov 2011 - Thor 5
- Jan 2012 - Black Widow
- May 2012 - Avengers 3
- Aug 2012 - Ant-Man and The Wasp
- Nov 2012 - Thor 6
Ant-ManEdgar Wright's first draft for the Ant-Man movie is from 2003. As noted earlier...Marvel is much more assertive in this timeline. By 2009, they had waited long enough and decided to film it without Wright.
Guardians of The GalaxyThe release date for Guardians is changed a few times. After Rise of The Silver Surfer, FOX continued to attempt a third Fantastic Four film, but Marvel would counter-respond by moving Guardians to the same weekend.
After this happened three or four times, FOX surrendered, giving up on their shaky sequel. But by this point Guardians was already filming so, by a happy accident, the Guardians enter the MCU in 2011, at just about the exact same time the rights to Fantastic Four revert to Marvel.
Black WidowThis one wasn't originally announced with the rest of Phase 2. Instead, once Marvel heard about Steven Soderbergh's desire to make a female action flick, they convinced him out to adapt it into a Black Widow movie (for a huge director's fee.)
Following the huge success of season 1, Daredevil is renewed for season 2, and Marvel pushes forward with other offers - teasing a mini-series each for Jessica Jones, Luke Cage, Iron Fist and The Punisher. The only major re-casting needed here is Elektra. Elodie Yung was way too far under-the-radar until 2013 or so...I recommend Tania Raymonde.
Using their partnership with HBO, Marvel also explore other options.
Agents of SHIELD is deemed too similar to Fringe, so that idea is shelved. Instead, noticing that Jeremy Renner is also thinking about network television, he is approached about a possible Hawkeye series.
At first, Marvel is unable to convince HBO to help them expand in time for the fall 2009 schedule, but after the success of Daredevil season 2 and the lukewarm reception to FlashForward, ABC orders 8 to 13 episodes of Hawkeye from HBO/Marvel to round out their Spring 2010 schedule.
One final possibility is Captain Britain. HBO and BBC have partnered together several times, it's not out of the question that they might pursue a comedy series starring someone like Simon Pegg. Think of a show like Chuck, but with a much higher budget. With the super-soldier, espionage, and medieval elements, a Captain Britain series would be a fun way to parody the MCU as a whole.
Infinity War is a true two-parterUnlike with our timeline, Marvel put the team front and center, with a film every two years allowing them to quickly outpace all solo series. Because of this, Civil War is the fourth Avengers film (instead of Captain America 3) and Thanos debuts two years early (2016) with the fifth Avengers film.
But rather than releasing a year apart, Infinity War part 1 and 2 are released more traditionally - May and November of 2016 - only six months apart. This is similar to how many major franchises have done it before, like The Matrix, Twilight, and Harry Potter.
Spider-Man is a seriesSONY misfires with their follow-up to Spider-Man 3. Just as with our timeline, they keep going back and forth with Raimi on Spider-Man 4, debating whether or not to reboot. The difference is, in this timeline, this ends up causing them to wait too long to make a decision.
After 3 years of production, SONY realizes they will miss the 4-year deadline and ask Marvel for an extension. Marvel declines and the rights revert in 2011.
By 2013, Marvel has Holland on set filming scenes for a potential series. He also films his scenes for Civil War. The schedule is a serious problem by now, with five or six films a year...it's hard to find room for all of them. Unsure of what to do, Marvel gets their answer the next year when ABC officially orders 22 episodes of Spider-Man for the fall 2014 season.
It is the most expensive television show of all time, only possible because of toy sales and profits from the films.
Daredevil continues to dominateBy 2015, when in reality Daredevil debuted his first season, Daredevil is on his seventh season. The rest of the HBO shows are much more interconnected with the overall MCU. Captain America crosses over with a season of Luke Cage to fight The Serpent Society, War Machine vs The Punisher, Black Widow and Daredevil have a romance etc.
Each of the other street heroes besides Daredevil have had 2 to 4 mini-seasons (6 to 12 episodes.) As the first to debut, and the most popular, Daredevil is the only one who maintains an annual release of a full season (10 to 13 episodes.)
Let me know your thoughts. I hope you enjoyed reading!