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- A handful of unicorns will IPO this year. Half will pop; Half will putter.
- In the run-up to these IPOs, the unicorns will continue to show skin and possible pivots, such as Snap Spectacles, in order to inflate their IPO prices. This means random, possibly unrelated, yet interesting, products coming from Dropbox, Lyft, Uber, and maybe more from Snapchat.
- Subscription pricing for productivity apps on iOS, as led by Bear Notes, will lead to a small boom in small teams or indie developers finding new careers as caretakers for polished, niche productivity apps. Meanwhile, some standard-bearers, such as Sketch or Omnigraffle, will finally have their version of Adobe Creative Cloud for themselves. Sketch and Omnigraffle are already great, so it won't make them better, but it'll mean more profits for them, and possibly the opportunity to unseat giants like Microsoft and Adobe.
- This year will feel like the worst year for piracy. The end of Kickass Torrents, the end of What.CD, the flood of piracy notices from ISPs, combined with better tech from legit services, such as offline downloads on Netflix and Amazon Prime, all extrapolate to these possibilities: the end of Pirate Bay, the decimation of file lockers, stricter reporting requirements on VPNs, as well as offline downloading from HBO GO, or better apps finally from the smaller content providers, such as Comedy Central or AMC.
- Password management will still be awful, despite some incremental bone that Apple may throw to the world, such as keyboard extensions that can be used by password managers. More attempts will be made at a unified SSO (single sign-on), but the economics won't work well for consumer providers. For example, Google or Facebook may have trouble agreeing on how to make a shared SSO, or maybe the fact that your SSO is tied to Google / Facebook / iCloud is a deal-breaker since people want to control their password managers.
- Microsoft will have a black swan in consumer tech adoption. Satya Nadella's chickens will finally come to roost, but we won't know exactly where. Maybe the maturity of Xamarin leads to a boom in cross-platform app development. Maybe people wake up and realize the Surface Pro is better than the iPad Pro. Maybe the decline in Apple gaming, the weakness in consoles, the tepid reaction to Steam machines, and the low cost of video cards, all lead to a new opening for Windows gaming rigs.
- Superapplications like WeChat, won't take off in America because it's not the American way. We like our separate apps, with separate interfaces, designed and marketed to us by independent developers. WeChat is more of an Asian phenomenon, due to a couple of cultural differences: the command economy of China; the weird fragmentation of the non-iOS / non-Android phones, which incentivize single portals; our higher standards for app quality, thanks to greater purchasing power.
- I don't own an Alexa, which is a big gap in my knowledge of tech, but voice assistants will continue to grow. However, it won't lead to a boom for app developers like the App Store did. The integrations really only work for simple interactions. Consider my Tarot app: You could ask a voice assistant to give a reading for the day, but you couldn't ask her to give you a five-card spread. You could order a ride from Uber, but you couldn't adjust the location or comparison shop. Voice assistants benefit large players who can afford to do these narrow integrations with the different assistants. Because players like Spotify are so big, the benefit to adopting each niche platform is worth it. It's like the Apple Watch: It's a valuable platform, but not singular enough to justify dedicated Apple Watch businesses.
- Chat bots will continue to be uninteresting, mainly because the same interfaces where they're used are also places where interactive apps live (voice assistants live in the air, chat bots live on phones). Yes, there are chat bots within Facebook messenger, but you can also just tap the home button and access fully interactive versions of those same apps from Google Play or Apple's App Store. Then you won't have to be limited by the unpredictable interactivity of chat bots. That's essentially the cost-benefit of chat bots and voice assistants to the user: Is the convenience of not having to pull out your phone and learn a funky interface worth the hassle of Siri or Alexa getting it wrong? The cost-benefit, therefore, works in narrow, repeatable use-cases: "Alexa, order me extra Tide; Siri order me an Uber."
- MacBooks will still be the best laptops money can buy, but Microsoft will have closed the gap a little bit more.
- The table currently set in the smartphone space will be the same a year from now. Android will still have the market share, Apple will still have the profits. Even as Google Nexus gains on the iPhone, savvy shoppers will want the best, and so they will still want iPhones. Unsavvy ones will remain satisfied with Androids. The ratio of unsavvy to savvy shoppers will remain the same.
- Some non-China, non-India country will be a tiger to rise from the ashes of the commodity super-cycle bust. Possible candidates: Mexico in the service sector, Vietnam or a Vietnam-like country to pick up the manufacturing slack, some African country on the Atlantic coast, maybe for manufacturing, or maybe even in the service sector. It's only historical that we can't conceive of call centers in Africa.
- Bitcoin will be greater than $1,000, but no greater than $2,000, which is essentially saying that Bitcoin has few if any surprises in store on the horizon. It has survived its biggest risk, which is that with fees and slow transactions, people will stop adopting Bitcoin. The ecosystem is too useful and the benefits for laundering money too great, for people to worry about those trivial things. I don't know whether Bitcoin will or will not adopt a conservative tech upgrade, like Bitcoin Unlimited, or a wild one, like Segwit, but I know that the miners, who hold all the cards, won't adopt anything risky. As for the upside, all the wild scenarios of years past, such as everybody using Bitcoin instead of cash to make ordinary purchases, have faded. However, it's a deflationary currency by design, so demand will rise as capital controls increase and national currencies depreciate, meanwhile the number of coins stays the same.