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A word of warning about Northwestern
Most peer schools (which I’ll define as elite private schools), amid COVID, made one of three choices — bring people back (with ample testing), don’t bring people back, or bring some people back. Duke and Cornell were quite successful doing the former. Princeton and Penn did the second of these three, giving ample notice to students and working with those in need. Schools doing the last of these options, like Yale and Dartmouth, generally introduced well-planned schemes to bring back 2 years in the spring, and 2 years in the fall.
Northwestern initially decided to go ahead and bring everyone back, only to cancel freshmen and sophomores one week before class began. On top of this, they did not reduce tuition for financial aid recipients like most peers did, but they did create a financial aid incentive for kids on aid to return to Evanston anyway and buy an apartment. Hence, we now have a large, hardly-tested mass of underclassmen off campus, and we’ve provided next to nothing for those who were screwed out of an in-person experience at the last minute. It’s not like there aren’t many cases anyway either — we’re right now in the “yellow” zone due to, mostly, a lack of testing and contact tracing.
To add insult to injury, because of the way our campus works (we have housing for 50% of the student body, but that’s it), it’s looking like we will invite only the upperclassmen back again in the winter, screwing over underclassmen at the last minute once more. This is mostly because we just lack the capacity to test at an acceptable level — once a week at a Mail-away lab is all that the $10B endowment can muster. If you think that going to NU over another big ten school is great because they “care about the students,” think again.
2) Recent Anger
As many of you might have read in the news, there have been some pretty intense riots at Northwestern recently, and it’s all gone unmitigated by the university. From the Chicago Tribune:
“The crowd marched into downtown Evanston, with some protesters throwing rocks and bricks at police officers, lighting fireworks in the direction of officers, pointing lasers at police officers’ eyes, and using umbrellas to cover individuals graffitiing streets, stop signs, and electric boxes, and damaging property,” the police statement said.”
This wasn’t even the first incident — weeks ago, the arch and administration buildings were vandalized with some violent graffiti (“more dead pigs”), and riot police were called in to quell the discontent. Regardless of your political beliefs, Northwestern has been a place of recent conflict, violence, and quite severe unrest. This is, no doubt, partially a spillover of the COVID-related anger at the president, but it really makes Northwestern a less pleasant place to be. There is an aura of rage that the university just cannot seem to control.
3) Financial struggles
Northwestern’s endowment, once at $11.1B, has fallen 12% over ONE YEAR! In fact, we’ve actually fired the person in charge of managing it, we’ve (controversially) laid off hundreds of workers, and all new construction or investment into the university seems to be on pause. This loss isn’t normal, even for 2020.
Northwestern has risen to its current level of prominence in large part because its had the financial resources to do so — we’ve used it to build a top football program, revamp our CS department, and continue to throw money at all programs until we became Ivy-level competitive. That stash has run out, and honestly, that’s concerning. It means not to expect anything new over the next few years — no new departments, buildings, renovated dorms, etc... It’s a time of austerity, with most of the building boom well over. At a school where acceptance rates have risen three years straight and national prestige has largely stagnated, I honestly don’t see much room to solidify NU’s reputation as an Ivy peer in the short term.
Nevertheless, NU is a great school, with many great programs, professors, and students. Just make sure you know what you’re getting into. The state of the union is...not great.
A closer look at Subvertadown accuracy 2020
If that's you... then this post might interest you: It's an attempt to let you guys to know that you're not getting some 2nd-rate set of projections from me (even though I piss a lot of you off all the time, by listing Koo/Lutz too low, leading you to NE/TB when they go on to bust, etc.)
If it's not you-- and if you're already "onboard"-- then first of all: I want to thank you guys so much, for your support for what I'm doing! All my work would mean nothing without the feeling that I'm helping-- and most of you have been so positively receptive this year. My motivation and models were really borne from this sub. They've been torched by this sub.... They've improved due to this sub; and I'm glad they can bring returns to this sub.
And secondly... this post might still interest you, too. The graph at the very bottom might be most interesting.
TL;DR - I've probably been too shy about appearing like bragging (and assuming the numbers just speak for themselves). But I decided it's better for you if I'm clear: (1) My kicker and D/ST models have been doing very well this year compared to other sources, even if it feels like they're misleading you sometimes. Or a lot. (2) I tried to include Koerner in my evaluation. (3) In fact, even by different accuracy metrics, my models seem to perform at the top of the pack. At least..., this has been the case so far.... Oh man, I just jinxed it, didn't I?
Accuracy and MotivationBy this point in a post (when I place a headline with text but no pictures) I just assume people aren't reading anymore and skipping to the charts. But if you are reading here, what I want to say is that I care a lot about accuracy. I've made all kinds of posts about the topic. I've posted what factors are/aren't good for creating accuracy. I've posted about how good accuracy is basically impossible to achieve due to randomness in fantasy. I've posted about what are good/bad ways of measuring accuracy. I've posted about different ways of representing accuracy to make it intuitive.
My concern for measuring accuracy supports my motivation: I want to make sure that what I'm doing is adding value, because I really don't want to waste my precious time -- and cost you your matches-- if my models were so subpar and had no chance of beating other sources.
The reason for my accuracy comparisons (to other sources) has not been to make myself look good. Most of you who followed me '18-'19 know this and how open I've been.... In 2018, I was barely above average-ish. In 2019, I eventually saw the signs that I could approach top-tier status. So, it is only this year that I believe I've started to push some boundaries. I still see ways to improve.
My point is: the real reason for my accuracy comparisons is of course to really find out who is doing better (and by how much), and to know if all this work is actually worth my time. I cannot track 130 sources like FantasyPros, but I researched a lot to find which sources ought to be the best benchmarks, and that is how I chose who to follow.
Comparing my Accuracy metric with FantasyPros' metric, for D/STI posted before about the reasons why I choose my accuracy metric-- it is simply a version of a Pearson's correlation coefficient. (Normally I transform it to fantasy points, to try and make it more relatable). I also explained why I think the FantasyPros metric can be problematic-- Yes, their method is "OK" and it will eventually "converge" to the same top choices as mine, but their calculation also measures fantasy randomness-- jumbling the results, by rewarding luck somewhat inconsistently.
Having said that, I wanted to show you what the accuracy comparisons reveal, using both methods. The following charts show the 2020 accuracy. On the LEFT side is my usual method with correlation coefficients; on the RIGHT side, I have reproduced the FantasyPros "Accuracy Gap" method. (According to their description, but not including weekly ECR component.)
Here it is for D/ST, using all results weeks 1-11. Accuracy is shown only for my top sources, by the two methods. Note: a higher correlation is better; whereas a smaller \"gap\" is better.
As you notice, there is one important extra addition to the list: I have recently added Sean Koerner's 2020 rankings. The man needs no introductions, and I have all respect for him. As of today, FantasyPros lists him at the #2 for in-season accuracy (out of 80-100), for both D/ST and Kicker. Which is quite in line with his historical performance: if you ever have doubts, you should of course look to him.
You can also see that my "FP Accuracy Gap" calculation successfully reproduced Koerner's dominant, top position. (Therefore, I believe my calculation is working correctly-- nobody else tops him.) The point is, as you can see, my accuracy comes very close to his. I used to have a lead, but he passed my accuracy right after week 8, and he deserves it: his top 2 D/ST picks usually average 12.5 points! (I'm lower than him at 1&2, but my picks 3-5 tend to do better.)
This just goes to show, as I've emphasized before: fantasy predictability just sucks. If you've been burnt by my models, what you can see here is that you can't really get THAT much better. I'm not calling myself the best in the business-- I'm saying that someone who IS the best is still prone to producing busts. From my season-opener post: "It's gonna suck. I mean it. So let's set expectations from the start. Blame yourself though, since you're the one choosing to play fantasy, and every fantasy football model will always sucks."
Now looking at Kicker Accuracy by the 2 metricsI think everyone knows: the kicker position is more of a headache. BUT Kicker is also position where I expected to make the most substantial difference, with a totally new model that I hoped the world had never seen before. Here's how the accuracy stands at week 11, using the same chart format as above (I average on top in both):
Accuracy is shown only for my top sources, by the two methods. Note: a higher correlation is better; whereas a smaller \"gap\" is better.
Now right off, I need to apologize about Koerner.... I could not reproduce his #2 status for kicker, which makes me defensive about my calculations of the Accuracy Gap. I definitely used the same calculation which proved his merit with D/ST, and I've really checked the formulas again and again. Maybe it's just because the numbers are SO close (75 vs 77-- these are slim margins), so I would just assume FantasyPros did something a tiny bit different and he really should be #2. Koerner appeared to be completely dominant at K until week 4.
Anyway, of course my intention was to compare my model against another top contender-- and to do so according to the FP rankings that you all know. I could not manage to ultimately prove it because Koerner came out lower, but it is definitely comforting that the calculation still puts me ahead of the other sources I found.
Here are the weekly results of Accuracy Gap, for a more detailed look. You can see which weeks contributed most to the error summation:
Applying the top-scorer accuracy gap formula to each kicker rankings source, weeks 1-11
A Deeper look at Kicker outcome ProfileHere's something really interesting to analyze. The following graph shows how different sources are producing kicker points, by kicker rank. I chose to average the "Top N" kickers, in order to smooth out the graph, which is otherwise completely unreadable. I admit it gives an unfairly rosier depiction of my results (because my "#1 kicker" gets averaged into all the lower ranks too), but I think it helps to depict:
Kicker fantasy point profiles, by rank position, from different sources.
Here's what I see:
- It almost doesn't matter which of my top 8 kickers you choose.
- Until kicker #8, my "Top 8" kickers tend to have a higher average than any other source.
- My #9 kicker has often been a bust.
- My #1 kicker has luckily produced a comfortable 10 points, on average.
- My #2 kicker averages much worse (mostly due to Dan Bailey in week 6. Fuck you, Vikings week 6.)
- Koerner's kicker rankings are also at the top, which should affirm his very high status at #2.
- Koerner's #1 ranked kicker has fallen short, on average (Myers in week 5, Crosby in week 7, Butker in week 8-- and again Butker in week 11).
- This is really interesting: My "Simple Eq." performs extremely well EXCEPT that it performs very poorly for kicker #1.
- I learned from this that you should avoid any SimpleEq that is 9.0 points or higher-- these are the cases that produce games with a lot of TDs but not FGs.
- But it might be okay if my formula still promotes such cases to the top.
- This is certainly the explanation for why kickers get less predictable in seasons with higher offensive scoring. (As I've been explaining in a few posts, this trend is seen for more passing TDs.)
- I learned from this that you should avoid any SimpleEq that is 9.0 points or higher-- these are the cases that produce games with a lot of TDs but not FGs.
- Boone is good for his #1 kicker.
- Most sources are decent for a flat 8.5 average.
My TLDR was at the top. Thanks for reading, and I'm looking forward to bringing you more guidance in this incredibly turbulent game of fantasy football.
Good luck, and here are my Kicker and D/ST links for this week! Oh, and my QB's doing good too.